Calculation

Use Run Iterations (or, when eligible, Incremental Update or Update Config) to generate and refresh results from your Inputs definition. This page covers the iteration loop, incremental what-if workflows, how that differs from probabilities and strategies, how macros fit in, and where to go once you have results.

Running iterations

Before you assign probabilities (and refine signals), run iterations from the Inputs or Analysis flow. A full Run Iterations (or Re-Run All Iterations from the split button) clears stored scenario data and calculates every combination of decision and uncertainty cases you defined, capturing tracked results for each scenario.

Running iterations first gives you a full set of scenario results to inspect. Probability weights you set later describe how much attention each uncertainty path deserves when you summarize expected values and distribution-style views—they do not replace having up-to-date scenario numbers from the workbook.

Incremental update and update config

After a full run, Bear Decisions can often avoid recalculating every scenario when you make small, safe changes. The primary action in the task pane adapts to what changed:

• Incremental Update — You added one or more new cases (for example a new Price alternative). Only the newly implied scenario instances are calculated and appended to your saved results; existing instance IDs and rows are kept.
• Update Config — No new cases need calculation, but metadata in your saved config should match the Inputs tab (units, reference values, goals, optimization mode, deleted cases in config, and similar). Iteration rows are not recalculated; the config cell is rewritten so analysis and dashboards use current definitions.
• Run Iterations — Full recalculation. Shown when you are up to date, when incremental update is not safe, or when you choose Re-Run All Iterations from the dropdown to replace the entire dataset.

When Incremental Update is available, the button tooltip summarizes which areas gained cases and how many new instances will be added. When Update Config is available, the tooltip lists config-only changes and notes that scenario numbers will not be recomputed. If everything matches and there is nothing to append or refresh, the control shows Run Iterations with guidance that you are up to date.

When incremental update is safe

Incremental update is offered when the saved iteration config is compatible with your current Inputs and the only structural difference is adding cases (note that renaming a case is treated as remove + add). Deleting a case does not remove old rows—they become orphans excluded in analysis—but you may still get Update Config or incremental update for new cases elsewhere.

Typical changes that can use Update Config without a full run (when no new cases exist) include reference values, units, goal definitions, tracked-result objectives (optimization mode or target goal), and periodicity changes on variables that do not use progressive synthetic cases. Changing periodicity on a variable that hosts progressive synthetic cases requires a full run because existing rows cannot be corrected by config refresh alone.

When a full run is required

Bear Decisions falls back to Run Iterations only (no incremental or config refresh) when the workbook state is not safe for append-only updates, including:

• New decision or uncertainty areas, or variables added, removed, or remapped to different cells
• Changed values for an existing case (same case name, different underlying Excel inputs)—v1 does not recompute subsets of old scenarios
• Macro execution mode toggled on or off
• A prior Incremental Update was cancelled partway through (partial rows remain until you complete a full run)
• Instance selection left the workbook off the expected baseline when a run would start (you may see a warning)
• Corrupt or unparseable saved iteration data

If you cancel during an incremental run, any instances already written are kept, but you must run Re-Run All Iterations before incremental update is offered again.

What the iteration loop does

Bear Decisions walks your workbook through each combination of decision cases and uncertainty cases you defined on the Inputs tab. For each scenario, it writes the corresponding input values, lets Excel recalculate (including any enabled macro hooks—see Automatic Macro Execution), then captures tracked results you configured.

At the end of the calculation process the original inputs (values and/or formulas as appropriate) are returned to the input cells (and macros re-run if applicable). Incremental runs follow the same per-scenario loop but only for the gap—the combinations that were not in the previous saved dataset.

Probabilities, strategies, and signals

Assigning case probabilities, configuring strategies and timings, and interpreting signals do not, by themselves, require re-executing every Excel iteration. Those layers reshape how scenario weights combine and how recommendations are derived when you analyze results—they are applied when summarizing and optimizing against the scenario grid, not by rerunning the full combination traversal every time you adjust a likelihood or strategy rule.

When you change structural inputs (new areas, remapped cells, changed case values, macro mode, and similar) use Run Iterations or Re-Run All Iterations so stored scenario numbers stay aligned with the workbook. If you open Analysis without an up-to-date grid, the task pane will warn you that it is out of date.

Macros during calculation

If your model depends on VBA during each recalculation, configure the adjustment to your macro following the integration patterns in Macros and adjust the evaluation process as described under Settings & Configuration before you trust the generated results.

Next Steps

Once you have calculated a set of results, you can choose to add Strategies & Timings to help guide the decision making process and improve the range of outcomes that you can expect, specify the Probabilities & Signals to reflect the different uncertainties that you may be facing or jump straight into exploring the results in the Dashboard & Visualizations.