We recommend [option], because [driver that matters]. Expect it to land nearer [expected value] than [the base case], unless [the condition that flips it].
Bear Decisions fills in every blank from the Excel model your team already uses, so the answer is ready when the follow-up comes.
Which option comes out ahead?
The better option might be the one you didn't test. Time typically limits how many cases get built, so sometimes only each option's favourites get tested. Choices interact, so the best overall plan is often a combination that never got built.
Bear Decisions runs every option under the same conditions, in one version of your model. Change an assumption, press Run Iterations, and every option updates. No summary tab to rebuild.
On the base case, Option A comes out ahead.
What could happen to each option?
The slide shows a number. Behind it is a range, and the outcome that sinks an option can sit in a corner that never got run.
Use the inputs you already have, such as P10, P50 and P90 production forecasts, each with a likelihood. Every decision option now has a band of outcomes and an expected value, and you can compare the full spread of results, not just their base cases.
In many planning processes, the range stops at the technical team and the business sees just one number. Bear Decisions keeps that range attached to the decision. Carrying it through your planning process is a project we can do with you.
Option A is most likely to beat the target in every year, with significant downside risk early on.
Which option holds up across the range?
The option with the best average could carry the worst downside. Another option, slightly behind, may never get near a bad outcome.
Bear Decisions puts every option and its range on one view, so you can see which one you'd stand behind.
Then see which uncertainties could change the answer.
Quantify that downside and Option A’s extra risk may not be worth the upside.
In Excel, in 6 steps
Your formulas and links stay untouched.
Installs in under a minute. First analysis on the example model: about 20 minutes.
Other questions? FAQ →
See it on a decision first, or try it on yours.
A 12-minute walkthrough of your first analysis.
Listed on Microsoft AppSource. For IT: one-page guide
Not sure the decision is ready for a tool? Start with the decision. Consulting