Welcome to the Baby Bear Blog

Hi, and welcome. I'm excited you're here.

Baby Bear Analytics is a company born from the simple but frustrating truth that complex, uncertain decisions are hard. Whether you're building a budget, planning a strategy, or buying a house (more on that in a second), it's easy to feel overwhelmed, outpaced, or just stuck.

Why I Started This

Last year, I found myself deep in spreadsheets trying to decide whether, when, and how to buy a home. I had thought through the major tradeoffs—interest rates, location, space, renovation costs—but even with all that effort, I was surprised by how difficult it was to pull the pieces together in a meaningful way. Then came the curveballs: market swings, tariffs, shifting timelines. I had a plan, but the process felt brittle. Exhausting.

That experience was one of many that led me to create Bear Decisions, our first product: an intuitive Excel add-in that automates scenario planning, supports probabilistic analysis, and gives you clarity—without the chaos. It helps you focus on what your results mean, what tradeoffs you're facing, and where the decision truly lies.

What This Blog Will Cover

This isn’t just a blog about our product (though you’ll see plenty of that). It's about the bigger picture: making better decisions in a messy world.

Here’s what you can expect:

The Journey: Honest stories from building Bear Decisions—why we built it, what we learned along the way, and how we're thinking about future features.
Decision Science: Principles and mental models for navigating uncertainty and complexity, from "One-Way Doors" to causal thinking.
Excel Power: Tips, templates, and techniques for scenario modeling inside the tool so many of us still rely on every day.
Product Explorations: Early looks at feature ideas or tools we’re prototyping—some serious, some experimental.
Your Voice: Real-world problems and use cases from users like you. Planning a five-year capital budget? Evaluating a hedging strategy? Let’s break it down.

What is in a Name?

Why Baby Bear? Because so often, decisions come down to finding the option that’s just right. Not perfect. Not easy. But right for you, right now. That philosophy underpins everything we do—from product design to how we think about tradeoffs and thresholds in decision-making.

Topics Coming Soon

Some of the first posts you’ll see include:

"One-Way vs Two-Way Doors": Why this mental model matters, and how it can reduce decision anxiety
"Why You Have to Decide Why Before You Decide What": The role of measures, red lines, and timing in good planning
"The Art of Accurate-ish": Fast, iterative modeling over false precision
"Building with AI (While Staying Sane)": A founder’s take on how AI can help—or derail—your work

If you're wrestling with high-stakes decisions—or just love tinkering with better ways to reason—this is the place for you.

You can also join our waitlist to be the first to try Bear Decisions or reach out if there's something specific you'd like us to cover. We’d love to hear from you!

Here’s to better decisions—together.

Mark