Why I Built This: My Spreadsheet Nightmare
MarkLast year, I thought I was making a simple decision: buy a home.
What I got instead was a masterclass in why our tools for complex decisions are fundamentally broken.
It Started Simple Enough
The opportunity was straightforward: an off-the-plan purchase in a market that had apparently risen 19% in the previous 12 months. (Or so they said.) The math seemed clear: put down a deposit now, settle in 2.5 years, move in.
But then the real questions started creeping in.
This wasn't just "Can I afford this today?" It was:
- Will I be able to afford this in 2.5 years when settlement hits?
- Will this actually help me get where I want to go?
- Should I go more modest now, or conversely, splurge to get exactly what I want?
- Or should I just wait and see what comes up on the regular market?
And then came the curveball: What if I start a business? (Surprise!) When would it need to be doing well enough for me to still qualify for a mortgage?
When Spreadsheets Become Torture Devices
I did what any reasonable person would do: I opened Excel.
What followed was days of modeling madness. I had spreadsheets for cash flow projections, market scenarios, renovation costs, opportunity costs of waiting, career trajectory impacts—you name it.
I spent hours updating my model, only to realize I'd missed some interaction between variables. Brute force ensured I remained confident in the calculations, but then it became a question of scale - could I evaluate all the uncertainties for each option I had identified? The time wasted on repetitive modeling tasks was crushing—especially when I needed to make a decision fast.
But worse than the time waste was the nagging fear: What if I'm missing a critical scenario? What if there's an edge case that completely changes everything? I felt inadequate that I couldn't do a good enough job with what might be one of the most important decisions in my personal life.
The Tools That Weren't There
Here's what frustrated me most: I went looking for tools to help. Surely someone had built something for this exact problem?
What I found were risk analysis tools that dove deep into probability distributions and Monte Carlo simulations. Impressive stuff, but they missed the point entirely.
I didn't need more sophisticated risk modeling. I needed help with the decision itself.
How do I weigh quantifiable factors (mortgage rates, property values) against unquantifiable ones (psychological safety, fear of missing out)? How do I create a narrative that actually stacks up and helps me feel comfortable with uncertainty?
How do I manage the fear that the market might keep rising while I'm stuck in analysis paralysis?
The Real Problem
The existing tools were built by statisticians for statisticians. They assumed you already knew what you were optimizing for, that you had clean data, and that your biggest challenge was computational complexity.
But real decisions aren't like that.
Real decisions are messy. They involve factors you can't quantify. They require you to balance multiple competing objectives while operating under time pressure and incomplete information.
Most importantly, they require you to actually decide—not just analyze.
The Breakthrough (And The Humbling)
Eventually, I did make the decision. And you know what? Even with all that modeling, I still didn't get it completely right. The market fluctuations hit harder than expected. Wars and regional conflicts I never saw coming. Some of my assumptions were just plain wrong.
But here's the thing: the planning process and directional decision remained correct. The modeling helped me understand the key tradeoffs and gave me confidence in my reasoning, even when the details shifted.
The goal isn't perfect prediction—it's structured thinking that leads to better decisions.
What I'm Building Instead
That experience became the inspiration for Bear Decisions, my Excel add-in that's launching soon.
It's not about more sophisticated risk analysis. It's about making the decision-making process itself less painful and more reliable.
Instead of getting lost in modeling complexity, you focus on:
- What outcomes actually matter to you
- Which uncertainties are worth worrying about
- How different scenarios stack up against your real priorities
- When you have enough information to decide
The tool handles the repetitive modeling work. You handle the thinking.
Why This Matters
Every day, smart people are making important decisions with broken tools. They're either drowning in spreadsheet complexity or flying blind with gut instinct.
There's a better way. Decision-making doesn't have to be a nightmare of endless modeling or a coin flip between options.
It can be structured, efficient, and—dare I say it—even enjoyable.
Want to be among the first to try Bear Decisions? Join our waitlist for early access and updates. I'd love to hear about the complex decisions you're wrestling with—and how I can make them less painful.
What's your biggest spreadsheet nightmare? Drop me a line at mark@babybearanalytics.com or connect with me on LinkedIn. I read every message.